[share_ebook] The Middle East: The Impact of Generational Change (The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies)

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The Middle East: The Impact of Generational Change (The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies)
Asher Susser | Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and Afr | 2011-05-21 | 174 pages | English | PDF

A flurry of political change in the Middle East has created the appearance of an “Arab Spring”: elections in Iraq and the PA (Palestinian Authority), mass rallies and elections in Lebanon, President Husni Mubarak’s decision to allow other candidates to compete in the Egyptian presidential elections, and local elections in Saudi Arabia. What is the essence of these changes, and what is their cause? Are they the fruit of President Bush’s policy to advance democracy in the Middle East, or are they perhaps an outcome of the media revolution currently sweeping the Arab world? Are they the harbingers of a genuine revolution that has been provoked by the considerable political, economic, and social frustration in the region, or are they merely a series of superficial coincidences that have nothing to do with comprehensive change? Are the various leadership successions inducing gradual transformations, or are the new heads of state simply waging the same persistent, ageold struggle to preserve the status quo? In light of these ambiguities, the successions in the Middle East were examined at a symposium held in March 2005 at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. All the speakers were scholars of the Dayan Center, with the exception of Dr. Yoram Meital, a guest lecturer on Egyptian affairs from Ben-Gurion University. For quite some time, observers discussed the possibility that Husni Mubarak would follow in the footsteps of Syria’s Hafiz al-Asad and bequeath the Egyptian presidency to his son. However, in February 2005, Mubarak called for a revision of the constitution that would allow several candidates to compete in free presidential elections. Given the restrictions imposed on potential challengers and the overwhelming victory of Mubarak, the change appeared to be cosmetic or, as the Egyptian opposition claimed, merely an optical illusion of democracy. The question being asked in Syria is not whether democracy is making inroads following the aforementioned transfer of power but whether Hafiz al-Asad’s son and successor, Bashar, is actually in control of the country. A more pertinent question, however, is – how long can this.............

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